Advertising is on the rise again, but some signs are worrying. Thus Magna Global (IPG Mediabrands) estimates the global growth of the advertising market should reach 4.1% for 2017 and 5.2% in 2018. Zenith (Publicis Media) on its side sees the worldwide growth rising up to 4.1%. And GroupM is forecasting a global growth of 4.3% in 2018, i.e. an increase of $ 23 billion.
But behind this optimism, some signs are worrying: the share of advertising in the global GDP is expected to decline slightly from 0.7% in 2017 to 0.69% in 2018. “The share of advertising in global GDP tends to decrease, which reflects the structural challenges of the sector” believes GroupM. The media agency explains: “A quarter of the amounts transferred from traditional media to digital media are devoted to data and technology. They are therefore excluded from the now obsolete concept of conventional media investment”. Another worrying point is the uneven distribution of the benefits of this growth. Google and Facebook will capture 86% of the growth of digital advertising in 2017, and Amazon should also play an increasingly strong role in the market.
Trends remain behind the Western European average for GroupM and Magna. On its side Zenith considers the Brexit as a brake on the European expansion and places French growth above that of Europe.
The French market should end the year with + 1.3% i.e. 11 billion euros, a better result than in 2016 (+ 0.9%) and 2015 (+ 0.7%), but still below the average of Western Europe (+ 3.4%). And Magna Global sees the growth in 2018 reaching 1.8%.
Looking at the breakdown by media in France, TV remains on the threshold of 30% of the budgets, growing by almost 1% per year in 2017 and 2018. Digital should reach 39% of the investments in 2018. Outdoor is estimated in decline going from 11.3% market share in 2016 to 10.5% in 2018.
(Stratégies, Dec. 2017)